Slow Reveal
Notice, Wonder, Connect
Titles suggested by students: “Alaska Housing Shortage”, “Make More Houses,” “Housing Crisis,” “No Workers = No Houses” or “The Housing Crisis We’re Facing,” “The Housing Problems of Alaska.”
Across Alaska, there’s a major housing shortage.
In Dillingham, teachers slept in their school earlier this year. In Southeast Alaska, businesses have lost workers because those workers can’t find housing. In Seward, the high school principal had to sleep in an RV by the ocean when he didn’t commute from Anchorage. In Girdwood, Alyeska Resort is building employee housing while in Ketchikan, a former state ferry serves the same purpose.
Last year, housing prices in Alaska hit a record high, with the average sale price of a single-family house topping $388,000. The average cost of a rental rose 8% this spring, to $1,276 per month, and rental prices in Anchorage rose 14%.”
James Brooks, Alaska Beacon published by Alaska Public Media, Nov. 2, 2022
Most of Alaska is facing a housing crisis now: there’s not enough housing available and what is available is too expensive for many people. Why? In Juneau, summer of 2022, there was a theory circulating that the problem resulted in part from landlords converting their traditional, long-term rentals to “short-term rentals” (such as Airbnb) because those were more profitable. The City and Borough of Juneau Assembly asked Juneau Economic Development Council to some research and report back. This week’s graph shows what they found out: that conversion to STR’s is only one part of why there’s not enough housing. The larger factor is that while Juneau’s population has remained steady, the number of adults has increased (while the number of children has decreased) and the number of adults living alone has increased, and so more housing is needed for them. Additional graphs provide more context throughout Alaska and the U.S. While this graph is specific to Juneau, the lack of available and affordable housing is a huge problem throughout Alaska now, and looking at one community in detail can help us understand the complexity of the problem. What, if any, housing challenges do you see in your community?
For adults, one of the highest living expenses is housing. There are several common ways to attain housing: you can buy outright, buy through a loan, rent, or live with family or friends.
If a buyer has a lot of money at their disposal, they can sometimes buy a house or apartment unit outright.
However, most people don’t have enough money at their disposal to buy a house – for example, the median price of a house in Juneau was over $450,000 in 2021. This means that most people who buy a house borrow money from a bank for the down payment, and then make regular monthly payments (with interest) to pay off their loan; this can take up to 30 years. This loan is called a “mortgage”. If a borrower is not able to pay off their loan, the bank can take control of the house and kick the person out.
Thirdly, many people pay rent and do not own the unit that they live in. People who own housing units, called “landlords”, rent out their spaces to others at a certain rate. Typically, renters (called “tenants”) pay a monthly fee to continue living in the apartment/home/unit. Sometimes that fee includes utilities such as electricity or heat, other times it doesn’t. The “average adjusted rental price” is determined by adjusting all rental contracts to include utility costs to make comparisons more valid.
Within a community, the ability to find housing has a large economic impact. Because we live in a capitalist society, housing is viewed as a commodity (something that can be bought and sold) that landlords & real estate investors can use to make a profit: supply and demand tend to dictate the availability and prices of housing units, similar to gas prices going up when there is less oil being imported into the United States. When demand for housing outpaces the local supply, housing prices go up and many low-income individuals and families are either severely cost-burdened by housing prices or are unable to afford them at all. This leads to more people leaving Juneau, employers having difficulty attracting people to fill jobs, and people having less disposable income to spend – which then has a negative impact on the economy as a whole.
Juneau’s low vacancy rate and high average rental price: Juneau’s 2022 vacancy rate (all rental units) was 3.6%. That means that out of every 1000 rental units in Juneau, only 36 are actually available for additional renters. Such a low vacancy rate shows us that Juneau is facing a crisis of affordable housing – most economic research agrees that a vacancy rate of 6-8% is ideal to keep rental prices balanced and affordable. Juneau’s average rental price for an apartment in 2022 was $1,260 per month ($15,120 per year). For someone earning Alaska’s minimum wage of $10.34, this constitutes 70% of their yearly pre-tax income, over two-thirds, which is a huge cost burden. It would leave them with only about $6,387 to spend on all other items: federal income tax, food, medicine, entertainment, car payments, maintenance, etc. It’s commonly agreed that 30% of wages is a reasonable percentage to spend on housing. The “Housing Wage” in Juneau – to afford the average rental price – would be $24.23/hr (about $50,4000/year)
The graph shows that between 2010 and 2020, there were 1,420 housing units built, 435 units converted to short-term rentals, and 173 units demolished. Short-term rentals (STR) – such as B&B’s or AirBnB’s – are set up for tourists and others who only want to live in Juneau for a short period of time (like, for instance, legislators). Even when owners of STR’s agree to rent for a longer period of time (a year), they charge at the more expensive, short-term rates. STR’s, therefore, are not useful or affordable housing for Juneau residents. Within those ten years, there were 812 net units added. Within the same time span, Juneau’s adult population increased by 1,435 people.
In 2021, the average number of people per housing unit was 2.45 in Juneau. This means that, theoretically, 812 units should or could be enough to accommodate 1,989 new people (812 x 2.45) – but clearly, due to continually rising prices, very low vacancy rates, and, yes, considerable anecdotal evidence, there isn’t enough housing in Juneau, and new units need to be built to lower prices and allow more people to buy and rent housing units. While, theoretically those 812 units “should” be enough to accommodate the additional needs, it’s very likely that there are not 812 units actually available to those 1989 people. The data does not account well for all the housing units that seem to be available, but actually are not. For instance, some units may be used as vacation units, others may be occupied by short-term tenants such as legislators and seasonal workers) that are not on the main STR websites (e.g., AirBnB). In addition, demolished/decrepit units are undercounted because there isn’t a consistent city system to account for them.
What factors could be creating this crisis in Juneau’s housing market? (see additional graphs in the slides for supporting evidence)
- The adult population has grown more quickly than other parts of the population, and adults are the age group most likely to need housing.
- Juneau has an “aging in place” population, meaning there are many seniors who occupy more housing space than in previous years (when seniors would have moved to assisted living homes or out of state).
- The increasing number of seniors living alone is a driving factor behind the declining average household size, which contributes to the problem of needing more housing units for the same number of people.
- People’s living arrangements in general continue to change, with more people living alone in Juneau than in previous generations.
- A partial factor, as noted, is the conversion of units to short-term rentals whether for workers or tourists.
- Inadequate data as described above. We don’t have the systems in place to accurately measure how much housing stock is or is not available and so it’s been hard to plan.
- Inflation is a factor in the price increase. Specifically, the cost of building materials has gone up sharply.
- As noted above, we live in a capitalist economy and supply and demand drive prices up and down. When supplies (of housing) go down, the sellers (landlords) charge more because they know buyers (renters buyers of houses) will pay more.
What are other factors influencing the housing crisis in the rest of Alaska? In addition to the variables at play in Juneau, some communities have additional issues.
- Many communities off the road system, for instance, have an especially difficult time creating new housing stock because of 1) the short construction season and 2) the fact that barges with construction materials only arrive twice a year. (Alaska Public Media)
What can be done to reverse the lack of affordable housing in Juneau and throughout Alaska?
- Subsidized housing (the government pays part of the rent and/or pays for part of the construction of new housing)
- Employers build housing for employees
- Creative solutions in which seniors rent out their extra space/bedrooms to adults needing housing in return for assistance around the house
- Open up more land for building (e.g., rezoning.)
- Make local lumber more accessible for local building
- Tax incentives and grants to encourage and support more construction, particularly higher density units and affordable housing for workers.
Another way to look at housing is from a community level re: climate change and minimizing carbon footprint. The NYTimes describes how Dr. Chris Jones “in earlier research, [….] has shown that for many cities, such as Berkeley, Calif., the single most effective climate strategy local leaders can pursue is to add what’s known as infill housing, apartments or townhouses built in underutilized parts of cities to reduce car dependence and improve energy efficiency.”
Additional Resources:
- Juneau Housing and STR’s Research (JEDC, Nov. 2022)
- Alaska faces unique housing challenges, as feds send millions of dollars to help, top HUD official says (Alaska Public Media, Aug. 2022)
- Here’s what Alaska’s gubernatorial candidates say they’ll do about the state housing shortage (Alaska Public Media, Nov 2022
- Living wage calculator: https://livingwage.mit.edu/
- New legislative housing could address longstanding challenges for lawmakers and staffers in Juneau (KTOO, Jan 2023)
Graphs and analysis posted by Brenda Taylor, with expert input and advice from Anton Rieselbach, JEDC Researcher.
Visualization Type: Bar Graph
Data Source:
Visualization Source:
I notice that population are going up way faster than housing. We need more homes.
I notest that the adult population is bigger than the number of houses that are built.
I looked up minecraft and it want down a little bit at the beginning but it was not a lot and it was back up and by the end it was then when it started. I wonder why it went down in the beginning.
I do woulder why people did too. Because people made more houses but the population stayed the same ?????????????????????
I think it’s interesting to know there is a housing shortage when it is not that apparent in other parts of Alaska. Of course, there are rentals and there seems like a lot of those. There is also the idea of living with relatives for a short time (I’ve done it before, and there are six people in my family) while looking for housing. The title could be Alaska Housing Shortage: Some Solution.
I agree, I also wonder a lot of those questions, especially why has the children population shrunk. I think it could have been because people are deciding to not have families in juneau because it is a hard place to raise one ( expensive).
I do agree. why do people make houses so expensive? If people who mand the price tag so high if it will hurt the economy and the people ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
I agree. The government should lower the prices of houses so that people can actually afford them
I notice that theres alot of people but not enough houses making rent very high and landlords don’t want to lower rent because that means they make less money. a good title would be make more houses.
Elvis,
That’s a very clear and accurate summary of the problem! I’m curious about your headline choice. “Make more houses” sounds more like a solution than a description of the problem. Is that what you think would seize people’s interest and make them want to study the graph (and maybe read an article?). What would grab your attention? And, who do you think should make the houses? Thanks for sharing your ideas!
I agree, but even if more houses were made, the rent would still be high. Much like you said, those that are leading the housing market don’t want to lower the prices. Moreover, we still don’t know what people are going to do with the house once they buy or rent from it.
A good title would be “Alaska Housing issues”
Arianna,
That definitely describes the general topic; I’ll add it to the student suggestions at the top of the reveal (top of this website). Is there a way that you could also hint at what the issues are – in just a few catchy, short words?
I agree with that. I think that’s a wonderful title
I agree with the title idea, because housing is an issue to others.
I agree, that is a good title, good job.
Something I noticed about this graph is that STRs are down 435. I wonder if the number of housing units will cause people to move. This relates to me and my community because if there are fewer people living in Alaska then there are fewer people being employed which might cause places to close down. I think a catchy headline would be, “Alaska Housing Shortage”.
I agree that people can move, and maybe that’s why STR’s went down 435. I also like the title you picked because that is what’s happening, and it does make sense to put that there so people viewing the article can understand what they’re reading quicker.
I just wanted to say that I think that your graphs are very educational and I learn a lot from them. Thank you for your time and attention.
Gretchen,
I just want to say how much I appreciate your taking the time to say that! I know that we are learning a LOT ourselves looking for these graphs and trying to figure out (even some of) what they are showing, but we have also certainly been wondering what you all think of them as well. This housing graph was partially in response to your teacher’s request for something about inflation and prices in Alaska; it’s not quite what she was looking for, but it’s related. We saw a request for more about minerals and nature and are working on that as well. It often takes quite some time to find a graph and a STEM professional to work with us, so the lag time between your requests and what we share is long.
Do you have any suggestions for graphs? Email us directly at juneaustemcoalition@gmail.com or write back here (email is probably better.). If you found out suggestions within your whole class, that’d be super helpful!!!
I noticed that 2010 to 2020 in the City and Borough of Juneau the average rental costs went from just over 1000 to over 1200. I wonder if inflation were to go down that more housing units would be made. I don’t know how this has a relationship with me. A good and catchy would be “The Housing Problems of Alaska”.
what I noticed was that fair bank was pretty stable and I do not need to sleep in school
You used very poor grammar. Like a Banana Man
banana man is cool tho.
banana man is cool tho.
I think a good name for this graph would be “The housing shortage of Alaska” because it would draw people in.
I agree that the graph should be called ¨The Housing Shortage of Alaska¨ cause it would bring more attention to the problem. The name is also very true, and gets to the point quickly.
I notice that there is a big housing shortage. I notice that the adult population spiked, and I wonder why it did. A catchy headline for this could be The Housing of Alaska.
In this graph, I notice that there is a severe housing shortage. The main thing that I wonder about in this graph is how this shortage could be fixed. This graph relates to me because it helps me to understand how other communities live. A title for the graph could be “The shortage of homes.”
Emma,
It’s clear that we need more houses to fix this shortage. It’s not so clear how to get those houses. Who should pay to build them? Where should they be built? In Juneau there’s a problem of not enough land that’s easy to use for building houses on. There’s land that’s not connected to the city sewer and water systems so is very expensive to build on. There’s land that’s zoned (through city regulations) for low density (so you’re only allowed to put a few houses on the land (which will be expensive to buy or rent) rather than more houses (which will be cheaper to buy or rent.)
i found the graf interesting. its weird that the prices are soo hight. i wonder why?
Erin,
I’m glad that you found the graph interesting.
Often, when there are more people who want to buy a thing (houses, in this case) than there are are things to buy, then the sellers raise prices because ….. people will pay those high prices and then the sellers are happy with their profit.
as my teacher said that ” there are some places that don’t have a lot of jobs leading them to not having a place to live.” a catchy headline would be the housing crisis because it sounds like something that would hook people in. I’m wondering why the prices get so high for the adult population and so low for the short-term rental conversions. I noticed that places have lost workers because they didn’t have a place to sleep so it’s kinda in a loop, as I said earlier no place to live/sleep no job, no job no place to sleep/ live.
I would agree with you when you said, “a catchy headline would be ‘The Housing Crisis.'” It’s interesting that you said it’s kinda in a loop. I have some insight on the housing crisis since I recently moved to Juneau. It was hard to find a house and we almost had to have my dad move on his own while my mother, brother, and I stayed in Kodiak Alaska. Thankfully, we finally found a house but it was rented out $200,000 more than they asked for.
1 thing that I noticed was that they built a lot of houses but there are a lot more people. I wonder since the number of adults was so large, how many more houses could they build if all of the adults helped? This is very sad. 🙁 I can relate to this because I lived in an apartment, and in my cousin’s basement for almost half of my life. It was a big struggle for my family and me because there weren’t good housing options yet. later on, we did find a good house. A catchy headline for this could be “The Housing Problems of Alaska”.
After the class met and talked about these graphs it made me wonder even more about them. I wonder why on one of the graphs the percent of age groups living alone is going up for 65 and older ages. I notice the housing wages U.S graph that on the coasts you have to make more money to get a house. I also notice that 173 units go destroyed. I wonder what happened that year. This relates to me, when I get older maybe the prices would go down hopefully so It would be easier to buy one. The catchy title for this would be prices flyin high
i notest that part of the graph is upside down, i wonder why the compared the units to the adult population. another name you can call the graph is adults v.s. units.
The reason some of them are upside down is because they are negative numbers.
I notice that the adult population spiked, I wonder why it did, this relates to me because if it spikes again when I’m an adult it could be hard to get a house, a catchy headline for this could be The Housing Shortages of Alaska.
This graph relates to me because my family owns 14 short time rentals.
Penelope,
Interesting! Have they always been short-term rentals, or were they longer-term rentals at one point? Do you know if your family debated short-term vs long-term rentals?
I noticed that this graph was very easy and clear to read. I liked how they had so much extra information to read about. Wonder why they said about 2.45 people could live in each house. I don’t think it is very likely that more than 2 adults would live together. I think a catchy title might be Juneau’s Housing Crisis.
I notice that there is more adult population than there are housing units. I wonder why they would demolish houses if they need more. I don’t think it relates to me in any way.
Catchy Headline: “The Questioning Actions of Juneau’s Demo Group”
I notice on the graph that the built units are 1,420, and that the adult population is 1435, I notice that the 1,420 has a comma in between the 1 and the 4, but 1435 does not. Why is this, I think that there should be a comma in both.
I agree. I wonder if it was an error or if it was done on purpose and if it was done on purpose i wonder why.
Aliyah and Avan,
What’s your guess? Error? Done on purpose?
Brenda
1 thing that I noticed in this graph was that they build many houses but there are many more people. The graph that we looked at was the slow reveal Housing Shortage Graph. I noticed that the adult population has really grown. I wonder why that has happened and why it has thrown the housing prices off so much. I also wonder why there are so many short-term rentals. This is a massive issue for our community as citizens of Fairbanks and Alaska. A catchy title for this graph is, “building Alaska’s homes from ground level.”
I notice that there are more people than houses. I wonder why the prices of materials went up. This relates to my future by telling me how hard it is going to be to try and get a house. A good title for this is No Houses in Alaska”
Kaiden,
Have you noticed whether prices are going up in Fairbanks? Prices have been going up all over Alaska and the U.S. for a few years now, mostly because of Covid. Do you remember how there were problems with “the supply chain?” Some products weren’t being produced, and/or production was slowed because of not enough workers because of covid, and/or transportation was slowed becuase of the back up in the U.S. ports. Just like prices of houses go up when there aren’t enough houses for all the people who want/need them; the prices of everything else go up or down depending on how much is available compared to how much people want to buy them.
I agree with what you said about having trouble buying a house in the future. I wonder if it will be easier to find a house then, or if it will have gotten worse.
I wonder what changes the amount of money you need to make to rent a house in each state. I had heard things about housing shortages here and there, but I didn’t realize how bad it was. I think a good name for the graph would be “The Housing Crisis We’re Facing”.
I agree, I wonder what the difference between each state is and if some are the same and some are different. I also wonder about if where in the country could effect the different prices.
In this graph, I notice that there is a housing crisis where there are more adults than in houses. I also notice that the prices are also increasing, but this should be sort of counteracted by the existence of the worker crisis, causing wages to increase. I wonder why the worker crisis isn’t helping as much as it should be. This relates to me by showing me the approximate direction the housing market is going into for when I’m older. A catchy title for this graph is this: Alaska Housing Crisis!
A quick suggestion for a graph to make: the Worker Crisis and how it relates to wages.
After looking at this Alaskan Graph I’ve noticed that the number of short-term rentals is much greater than the number of homes demolished and is one of the biggest reasons that there wasn’t enough housing. I wonder why there are so many short-term rentals. This is a massive issue for our community as citizens of Fairbanks and Alaska. A catchy title for this graph is, “building Alaska’s homes from ground level.”
1 thing that I noticed in this graph was that they build a lot of houses but there are a lot more people. I wonder since the number of adults was so large, how many more houses could they build if all of the adults helped? This graph relates to me because, well, I live in a city like this. A lot of people don’t have homes because there are a lot of people but not a lot of houses. I think this is because the prices for a lot of things have gone up including materials to build houses, gas, and heat. I don’t really have a catchy title but I see a lot of other good ones above so yeah.
I noticed prices went up at an alarming rate a good title for this i feel would be something like “Alaska Housing Crisis” Because people will be intrigued and go “Alaska Housing crisis? i wonder what happened” And i wonder how many Alaskans actually know about this.
I noticed in this graph that the Short Term Rental conversions had decreased into the negatives by 435. I wonder what happened during that time to decrease the STR by so much. This graph relates to me and my community because I live in Alaska, and this graph is talking about the Alaskan capital. I think that a catchy title for this graph would be “Juneau Housing Shortages, and What They Tell Us.”
With this graph i notice that there are ore people than homes and that is just down right sad :(. what i wonder is why are there more people than homes there should be more homes than people. this graph relates to me by how we are reacting to our problems, and how we are going to fix it. a catchy title for this is Juneau housing for fun people.
The graph does say there are more people than homes, but many people live together. A better piece of information would be how many new households there are, rather than the adult population growth. If all new adults lived with just one other new adult, there would be more homes than needed. However, if all new adults lived with 2 other people there would be nearly twice as many homes available! How many other solutions are there?
i agree to how sad this is. these poor people don’t have homes cause there’s not many houses- and the rent can sometimes be too much. to fix the this some people can build more homeless shelters or- high schools could do a little club where they make cabins or something idk, point is hopefully some people can figure this out and band together! (also i like the title!)
Something that I noticed about this graph is that there are more adults than units for people. I wonder why there is such a big housing shortage? This graph relates to me because (well I don’t know people who live on the streets) I do know people who have lived in a couple of different apartments because they cannot find good houses to rent or buy. A catchy title for this could be “Juneau Housing”.
The ‘why’ of the housing shortage is so complex. That’s the same question I had! I kept pestering our “expert”, Anton Rieselbach, and he kept saying, well, it’s complicated….. Did you read the text we wrote above where we explained some of the reasons?
From the Friday graph today, I think a good name would be “No workers = No houses”. It seems like when there are no houses there is also a lack of workers, and another factor is if there are not that many houses I don’t get why you would increase the price of the house, since I feel like that might push away buyers, but that’s just an observation. 🙂
Caylin,
Yes! It’s pretty hard to have workers if there’s no place for them to live. Which do you think comes first, no workers or no houses? And, yes, raising the price of a house might push away some buyers, but other buyers will be so desperate to buy a house (because there are so few available), that they’ll pay higher prices. At some point, for sure, prices will be so high that no one will pay (and banks won’t loan money to the buyers), and then the “market” may collapse (that’s what happened in 2008 nationwide and a little later in Alaska and led to a huge recession.)
The graph that we looked at was the slow reveal Housing Shortage Graph. I noticed that the adult population has really grown. I wonder why that has happened and why it has thrown the housing prices off so much? We have children becoming adults every year. Why has the adult population become so big? Has the children population shrunk?
Payton,
That is such an important question!!!! In Juneau, one of the problems is that it’s expensive to raise children here. We don’t have enough child care and – as you can see – the housing is also very expensive. So people who are of the age to have children have to think more seriously about how many to have and/or where to have them. Some move away. Some have fewer (or no) children.
I agree that the children population has shrunk but there are still kids being born everyday. While the adult population has grown, I think that’s ultimately why there are less houses for adult and people 50+. I’m interested to know more about what you meant when you said “the adult population has become so big” because I thought the adult population was different about having less housing problems. Frankly, I thought the growing child population was the problem.
I notice that there is a lot of people and not a lot of houses. I also notice that the number of houses are increasing but it is not as fast as the population. Houses are also getting more expensive. Why don’t construction workers make more houses? They would make more money because the houses are more expensive. I also noticed that the coasts are more expensive than the middle of the country.
Doug,
It’s such an interesting question to think about how can we get more houses made? What do you think are the costs involved in building houses? Who do you think should pay for those costs – either until someone buys the house and pays back the costs or until someone rents for years and years to pay back the costs?
I noticed that from 2010 to 2022 in the City and Borough of Juneau the average rental costs went from just over 1000 to over 1200. I wonder why people don’t drop the price for less fortunate people. I don’t know how this has a relationship with me. A good and catchy would be “The Housing Problems of Alaska”.
Nathan,
Prices went up – in Juneau and throughout Alaska. At this point, many landlords rent in order to make money – just like people running restaurants or making widgets. They charge what it costs them (in taxes, maintenance, insurance) and then extra if that’s “what the market will bear.” We live in a capitalist society of “supply and demand” and it’s assumed that if there’s more supply and not enough demand, then prices will go down and if there’s not enough supply and more demand then prices will go down. If the landlord is making less money (by renting for less), will they then have less money for the things that they need to provide for their own families? If you were a landlord, how would you choose how much to rent for? Would you change your price based on what people could afford? Or choose the people to be in your apartment based on who could afford the most?
I think your title certainly improves this graph and points out that there are problems!! Thanks.
I think that a good title for this could be “Alaska Housing Shortage”. This would be a good title because it draws in more people and could hook them into the story.
Dear Anonymous,
I completely agree. Your title does draw people in and tells the story. I think I’ll add “shortage” to our title for this graph now! thanks